Jose "Scarface" Aldo is the proven commodity, the methodical assassin in the Octagon capable of chopping opponents down with vicious leg kicks and cranium cracking jabs. The Interim Champion however is the flashy new kid on the block, snazzy dresser, accurate striker and bold trash talker. The consensus is that Conor McGregor may actually be a decent fighter but might not necessarily have the tools to deal with the wily Jose Aldo. This may very well be true, and honestly, it's my take as well, so let's analyse.
From a statistical standpoint, the single biggest disparity between these two fighters would be takedown defense. Jose Aldo is by far the better fighter at stuffing takedown attempts than Conor McGregor. Seeing however as both fighters tend to rely more on their striking game, that's probably a moot point to begin with. Below is a breakdown of Jose Aldo (on the left) and Conor McGregor respective striking games.
| STRIKING (SIGNIFICANT STRIKES) | ||
|---|---|---|
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)
|
3.29
|
5.44
|
Striking Accuracy
|
43%
|
44%
|
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)
|
1.94
|
3.01
|
Defense
|
72%
|
64%
|
While their striking accuracy is remarkably similar, the numbers clearly demonstrate the tendency of Jose Aldo to be the more cautious and defensive fighter landing 2 fewer strikes per minute than McGregor. Clearly the increased "Octagon control" comes at a cost for "The Notorious", who takes far more damage than "Scarface". Of course these numbers are a bit skewed with Jose Aldo having a larger sample size to draw from, however they're still indicative of the styles of each fighter.
Truthfully when the fight was first announced I was in the camp of people that felt that the UFC was rushing their precious cash cow into a title fight that he was not ready for. Especially against a champion as methodical in his destruction of opponents as Jose Aldo. However, this match should come down to game plan implementation. Something Conor McGregor is deceptively good at. Should Conor successfully push the pace and pressure Aldo, he could ultimately walk away the victor.
On the flip side, Jose Aldo's best chance at success is slowing McGregor down and keeping him at bay with his signature leg kicks. Should the fight hit the ground I give a small edge to Aldo, however as previously mentioned, that's an unlikely scenario. With McGregor's superior reach, ability to push the pace and Aldo's sometimes suspect cardio, my final prediction is Conor McGregor by split decision.
Thoughts?
*Stats provided by FightMetric*
