The hype leading up to UFC on Fox: Velasquez vs dos Santos was amazing. Two exciting heavyweights, on top of their games, getting ready to clash. Cain was the unbeaten champion with a well-rounded game, and Junior the unbeatable-looking hotshot with lead in his fists. Best of all? The fight was free! Definitely not a fight any MMA fan, hardcore, or casual would want to miss. Unless you tuned in, and blinked. In a heartbeat it seemed Big John McCarthy was pulling dos Santos and his fists of fury off a downed Velasquez.
It was an amazing display by Junior and a true testament both to his technical boxing skills, and his amazing power. That being said however, it was also technically a fluke. That is by no means meant to disrespect dos Santos, who has certainly earned his belt, but Cain has the tools to beat dos Santos. The problem with fighting a guy like dos Santos is that on top of his knockout power, he is a very smart and technical fighter. Regardless though, much like Chael has the right tools to beat Anderson Silva (despite failing), Cain can and probably will beat Junior. He just needs the right game plan, and he needs to execute this game plan flawlessly.
Cain Velasquez's 60.2% accuracy in significant strikes is second only to Anderson Silva in the UFC. Junior fails to make the top 10 of that list. The two fighters do match up remarkably well on paper though. For significant strikes landed per minute, Cain Velasquez tops the UFC with 7.47. Second on that list? Junior dos Santos at 6.87. As for strike differential, which measures how many more strikes a fighter lands than he absorbs per minute, Cain Velasquez again tops the list with 6.24, and again dos Santos is number two in the UFC with 4.78. As a point of comparison, Jon Jones' strike differential is 2.48, good for the number 7 spot. The last stat I'll bore you with that separates Velasquez from his Brazilian counterpart is strikes absorbed per minute. Cain is number 7 on the list for absorbing the fewest strikes per minute with only 1.23, tied with Georges St. Pierre.
As the stats above clearly indicate, Cain is actually (albeit marginally) a more efficient striker than Junior dos Santos. So all the conjecture of a striker vs wrestler match up is totally ridiculous. Velasquez is an elite striker and can easily hold his own with any striker in the division. Does he possess the same dangerous one punch knockout power of Junior? No, definitely not, but that's hardly the most relevant factor to consider. When you consider that they are comparably efficient on their feet, that leaves the ground game. Cain's wrestling pedigree without question gives him the edge in that facet of the fight game.
Truth is, at their last match up, Cain got caught. Plain and simple. It can happen to the best of fighters (think St. Pierre vs Matt Serra). And while I am certainly not comparing Junior to Serra, it would be premature to count Cain out, he simply has too many tools. AKA teammate Jon Fitch was even kind of enough to provide Cain with a legitimate excuse, admitting that he had a knee injury. Not only can Cain beat Junior, he can probably do it very convincingly.
Who do you have winning this fight and why?
*Stats provided by www.fightmetric.com*
I also think Cain will win but not for the same reason . The level of strikeing is not close and Cain found that out in the first fight . He absolutely needs to use his superior wrestling to win this one . If decides to get over confident with his very solid strikeing again , he's going to end up with the same result . He just can't stand and bang with JDS
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